The tech industry is constantly undergoing revolutions, always on the hunt for the “next big thing” and just as quick to burn down what it loved the day before. Each revolution comes with its own set of predictions and even prophecies, ranging from cures for all the world’s ills to the end of the world or the end of a world.
The latest example is generative AI, which is no exception to the rule, with idealistic or, conversely, anxiety-provoking reviews multiplying at an unprecedented rate, amplified by marketing hype, hasty predictions, and alarmist posts on LinkedIn.
But amid all this constant turmoil, there is one principle that must not be forgotten. It does not predict the future, but should teach us to temper our expectations: it is the Amara law, which was formulated over 40 years ago but has lost none of its relevance.
Here is what it tells us:
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run”
A principle that should be written on the front page of any transformation project.
It reminds us that the real impact of a technology does not depend on the strength of the announcement or the speed of deployment, but on our ability to embed it in the long term in uses, structures, and practices.
PS: Years ago, I mistakenly attributed this quote to Bill Gates (We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years…). This was only half wrong, as he did say something very similar in a speech, but he is not the author of the original quote.
In short:
- Amara’s law highlights a recurring discrepancy in the adoption of technologies: their effects are overestimated in the short term and underestimated in the long term, calling for more tempered expectations when it comes to innovation.
- Generative AI illustrates this phenomenon: widely adopted and hyped in a short period of time, it still faces limited use cases, high costs, and complex organizational integration.
- Digital transformations in the workplace reveal fast promises that are not fulfilled in the short term but have profound and progressive effects on skills, roles, and practices in the long term.
- In HR, despite promising applications for AI, the impact remains low due to a lack of data structuring, governance, and cultural and organizational alignment.
- Amara’s law urges change agents to avoid rushing into things or giving up, and instead adopt a position of strategic patience to allow technologies to produce their effects over time.
A bit of history
Amara’s Law did not originate in a Silicon Valley laboratory (although it came close) or in a scientific article, but is the result of the experience, reflection, and observation of one of the pioneers of futurology: Roy Amara.
Roy Amara (1925–2007) was a researcher and president of the Institute for the Future (IFTF), a California think tank founded in 1968 in Menlo Park. The IFTF brought together scientists, economists, business strategists, and public policy experts to think about the future in a rational way, far from passing fads.
It was in the 1980s, at the height of technological effervescence (the dawn of personal computing, digital networks, and symbolic artificial intelligence), that Amara formalized this observation. He had observed a recurring phenomenon: each new technology gives rise to a wave of excitement followed by disenchantment, then a slow restart, but often with a much more structuring and impactful effect than initially announced.
Amara’s law was never formally published, but it is cited in several books on futurology and was popularized by The Futurist in 2006. It continues to inspire researchers and change management practitioners alike, as it has never failed to hold true.
Generative AI or Amara’s Law in fast forward
Since late 2022, generative AI has emerged as the ultimate symbol of Amara’s Law. In just a few months, it has gone from
- confidential experimentation to mass adoption,
- from a text completion tool to a promise of global transformation for knowledge-based professions,
- from a playground for early adopters to a strategic topic in the roadmaps of large businesses.
But this unprecedented rise has naturally been accompanied by fantasies. Some are already heralding the end of work, others a productivity explosion never seen before.
But in reality:
- truly industrialized use cases are still rare and unprofitable (Will genAI businesses crash and burn?),
- operating costs remain high,
- integration into workflows requires time, governance, and training.
The reality is slower than the promises, more turbulent too, and above all more complex than the predictions. Amara’s law reminds us here that just because a tool works does not mean that the organization is ready to take full advantage of it.
It is not the tool that transforms, but rather work that transforms itself, slowly, even very slowly, under the combined effect of learning, experimentation, and alignment between technology, professions, and work organization (The limits of technology-driven transformation).
Digital workplace: fast promises, delayed effects
The digital transformation of the workplace is another ideal area for observing Amara’s law. For more than 10 years, every software innovation, from social intranets to enterprise social networks, collaborative suites and knowledge management tools, has been hailed as a breakthrough.
Promises of fast adoption and substantial productivity gains are made, but the reality is quite different:
- tools overlap without always complementing each other,
- uses develop differently depending on the team,
- collaboration increases and transfers mental load,
- and workflows do not become more fluid.
In the short term, there is a noticeable gap between the simplicity of the technology and the complexity of the organizational context. In the long term, however, profound changes are emerging: new skills, new roles (curation, facilitation), redefinition of asynchronous work, and increased proficiency in writing and content.
If we take enterprise social networks as an example, it is clear that while they cannot be denied as a failure, the concepts and uses they have brought about have now spread to many tools without us even realizing it, in a natural way, without forced change management, and in the end they are here to stay, even though the hype has long since passed (The rise and fall of enterprise social networks).
These are transformations that seem to fail at first, to the point that we tend to quickly dismiss them, but which slowly gain ground if we give them time.
HR and AI: immediate promise, delayed change
In human resources, Amara’s law also holds true. AI is everywhere: CV sorting, training recommendations, soft skills assessment, chatbots for candidates. The demonstrations are impressive, but in reality their impact remains modest.
Most businesses have not yet:
- resolved the issue of algorithmic bias,
- structured HR data governance,
- clarified human responsibilities in relation to automatic recommendations,
- or even considered the impact of these tools on managerial relations.
This is not a rejection of technology. It is a period of absorption. A time of transformation. The tools are there, but the structures, roles, culture, and regulation are not yet keeping pace.
In the long term, change is likely, even inevitable: a repositioning of the role of HR, making it more strategic and more focused on data and employee experience. But this will take time and effort.
Leaders of change, don’t fall into the trap of rushing
Amara’s law is also a warning to all those who have to lead change, regardless of their level.
It warns us against two opposing risks:
- rushing, which pushes us to deploy too quickly without real ownership,
- and disillusionment, which pushes us to abandon an innovation too early because it has been poorly exploited.
We must neither expect immediate results nor reject everything after the first difficulties. We must accept the delayed pace of transformation, support its use, be clear about short-term expectations, and allow time for the organization to reconfigure itself and for the work to evolve.
From this perspective, patience is not slowness but a strategy that avoids constant zigzagging, costly fads, and losing credibility through broken promises.
Bottom line
Roy Amara never claimed that his law could predict the future, but it does invite us to look at it with less naivety and more discernment. With each technological wave, it reminds us that the short term is misleading, but that the long term is underestimated if we give it time to arrive.
Technologies come and go. What remains are uses, organizations, skills, cultures—in other words, the things that often take the longest to change.
Amara’s law, in short, is an excellent reminder for anyone who wants to use technology as a lever for progress without regularly falling into disillusionment.
Image credit: Image generated by artificial intelligence via ChatGPT (OpenAI)
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